Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The Micromutation Lottery

How can complex, intricate biological systems derive from a process of "infinitesimally small inherited variations, each profitable to the preserved being?" Everything has to change in tandem, because systems are interdependent and integrated. It's not like swapping out a faster microprocessor while retaining the old hard drive. Furthermore, these changes have to afford a selection advantage--they have to allow the new organism to be a superior breeder.

The mathematical probability of evolution is influenced directly by the following variables:

1. The necessary quantity of favorable micromutations.

2. The frequency of occurrence of such micromutations when and where required.

3. The efficacy of natural selection to preserve and accumulate mutations consistently.

4. The time allowed by the fossil record.

A group of mathematicians actually worked this out in the 1960s. When they reported their conclusions at a scientific meeting there was an immediate uproar from the evolutionary biologists, for the mathematicians had demonstrated that Darwinism was practically impossible.

So, what do you do when the entire basis for your professional life has been called into question?

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